Korea Meltdown
Written by: Ashwin September, Lee-Anne Rodrigues, Yasmine Jacobs
North Korea is known for its questionable and unconventional government and constant threats to go to war with other countries, but should we take them seriously? Where does North Korea stand when it comes to nuclear warheads and weaponry?
Background
Ever since the Korean War that ended in 1953, Korea has been split into North Korea (also known as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) and South Korea. Differences between the two Koreas include political regimes, beliefs, economy and population. Some studies suggest that North Korea is one of the most corrupt countries in the world, whereas South Korea is thought to be democratic, industrialised and ‘modern’. The Cold War established an alliance between North Korea and China. However, Beijing is slowly starting to back away from North Korea for a number of reasons.
Should we be bracing ourselves for another World War?
Even though North Korea’s nuclear capabilities seem intimidating, there are reasons to believe North Korea will not start a war. There have been numerous occasions where Kim Jong-un threatened nuclear war but has yet to act. North Korea’s crumbling economy would not enable a war. Speaking of economy, the economically-strong China will not back a North Korean war: consequences of a war would be devastating. It would affect China’s imports and exports - and since they are so economically strong, the world’s economy would be impacted negatively. It is also thought by many military analysts, that North Korea would lose if they were to start a war (possibly with the United States). It is commonly believed that they have the fourth-largest standing army in the world, but some of their equipment dates back to the 1950s. South Korea may not have as much equipment or as many soldiers, but the United States has promised to defend it should the situation arise.
But the above-mentioned theories represent one side of the spectrum. Some political analysts claim there is a 70% to 80% chance this conflict could result in all-out war, not only a second Korean War, but World War III. According to Zhang Liangui, a professor of International Strategic Research at the Communist Party’s Central Party School, “There is a 70 to 80 per cent chance that a war will happen because North Korean leader Kim Jong-un may want to use this opportunity to force a reunification of the Korean Peninsula.” According to financial experts, economic issues could also worsen the chances of a war. A world war on such a scale could crash the stock market and possibly the global economy.
Tensions with Neighbours
Tensions between North Korea and other countries, particularly the U.S., Japan and South Korea, continue to rise as North Korea refuses to cease nuclear and ballistic weapon testing. Tensions reached new levels when North Korea successfully test-fired two Nodong missiles while the potential enemies met for talks on March 26th at the U.S. embassy in Netherlands.
The tensions between North and South Korea have never really been resolved since their separation in 1950.These wounds being seemingly opened by North Korea more often than not. The situation is unlikely to change, as Kim Jong-un retained power after a unanimous vote in what was considered to be an election in early March. North Korea remains dissatisfied with the U.S. and South Korea military exercises earlier this year. The exercise may also have incited the test-firing of the Nodong.
North Korea has withdrawn itself from (or avoided) anti-nuclear and proliferation pacts many times, agreeing only when their terms and conditions were met. Even then, the legitimacy of their agreement to terms set by the United Nations (U.N.) might have been questionable… at best. In 2010, a secret nuclear facility made for enriching uranium was shown to an American nuclear scientist. The Yongbyon complex has probably been active since 2008 - its closure was verified by the International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors in 2007 after they were kicked out of the facility in 2002. This site remains active in violation of the agreement North Korea made that banned them from conducting nuclear tests and firing ballistic missiles.
Besides the tests and military exercises, the two Koreas and the U.S. have exchanged verbal threats, challenges and accusations, with most originating from North Korea. Not that they’re the only aggressors in this situation: a South Korean official received threats from North Korea after his assertion that North Korea wasn’t a ‘real country’ and that its existence is only to the benefit of one person - a stab at Kim Jong-un. He went on to say that North Korea ‘must disappear soon’ and that the country had nothing in the way of public freedoms or human rights.
North Korean diplomats responded by saying they would ‘mercilessly’ punish anyone who slandered their top leader and the system. Pyongyang also released a volley of racial slurs and sexist comments aimed at South Korea and the U.S., comparing South Korean president Park Geun-hye to an ‘old prostitute’ and President Barack Obama to a ‘wicked black monkey’. Hardly a diplomatic response… but they added that the statements made by the South Korean official were a ‘grave provocation’. The insults aimed at President Park Geun-hye were called ‘immoral’ and ‘unacceptable’ by South Korea, while the U.S State Department labelled North Korea’s racist slurs ‘disgusting’.
Pyongyang is now threatening to conduct its fourth nuclear test in response to what it refers to as South Korean and U.S. ‘hostility’, despite firing more than 500 shells into South Korean waters during the shared training exercise code-named ‘Foal Eagle’. The action forced South Korean residents to evacuate their homes and retreat to shelters for several hours.
Any actions taken to build relationships or stimulate peace talks result in North Korea feeling threatened or the accusation of South Korea and the U.S. devising a plan that would betray North Korea. However, the ‘rogue state’ constantly tests nuclear devices and fires missiles and warning shots into South Korean waters. An unmanned drone was recently found on a border island in South Korea. The widely held conclusion was that North Korea used the aircraft to conduct reconnaissance missions.
Actions like these and frequent harsh words between the rivals suggest that it may not be long before military action becomes a seemingly plausible solution… if not the only one.
Why should we worry about North Korea?
Talks surrounding North Korean nuclear activities have been going on for years. In 2005, North Korea signed a deal to give up its nuclear ambitions in return for economic aid and political concessions. Fast forward seven years to early 2012 and North Korea announced that it would suspend nuclear activities in exchange for U.S. food aid. This announcement was meaningless, as Pyongyang tried to launch a rocket in April of that year. Even though there's a pattern of North Korea going against its word, it could still follow through with the threats to attack
neighbouring countries.
There have been three nuclear tests. The first was conducted underground in October 2006 - North Korea claimed it was successful...but the rest of the world thought otherwise. The second test, also held underground, was in May 2009. Like the first nuclear test, it was claimed to be a success despite uncertainty from the global community. The third nuclear test was in February 2013. This time, unlike the previous tests, it was acknowledged as a success by the rest of the world.
North Korea makes various unsubstantiated claims about its martial capabilities, one of which is that it can produce weapons-grade uranium and plutonium. They possess short- and medium- range missiles and large hoards of chemical and biological agents such as anthrax, smallpox and even plague. Some studies suggest that, in the event of war, one million lives could be lost in the first 24 hours. North Korea’s equipment might be old, but its army enlists a million soldiers and over 8000 artillery pieces. It might seem that Mr Kim is crying wolf and that the threats are falling on deaf ears, but combine his unpredictability with the biological and chemical warfare and you might start to worry.
Missile Name
KN-1
KN-2 Toska
Hwasong-5
Hwasong-6
Nodong
Taepodong
Masudan
Taepodong 2
Missile Ranges
Above are the North Korean missile ranges. While the KN-1, KN-2, Hwasong 5, Hwasong 6, Nodong and Taepodong have been successfully tested, Taepodong 2 failed 40 seconds after its launch while the Masudan is still untested.
Recent developments
Seem like Supreme Leader Kim Jong-Un is at it again with his purges. This time, the one whose head is on the chopping board is Political Director of the Korean People’s Army and joint Chairman of the Politburo Presidium Choe Ryong-Hae. The reason for this decision is that Choe’s father, Choe Hyon, was the one who actually led the guerrilla force in the Battle of Pochonbo. Problem? Kim Jong-Un’s father was supposed to take the credit for that battle. For years, school children were brought up to believe that Kim Jong-Il was the victor. In other words, Kim Jong-Un doesn’t like the fact that someone else stole his father’s thunder.
The North Korean leader doesn’t take the idea of harsher sanctions lightly. When U.S. President Barack Obama threatened North Korea with harsher sanction, a broadcast from North Korean state television made a statement saying that South Korean President Parks Geun-ye was ‘recently playing act in front of Obama and was like a mean, immature girl begging a powerful gangster to teach someone a lesson or like a crafty prostitute plotting against someone by giving her body to a pimp’.
Cult of Personality
North Korea has three dynastic generations – the Kims’ personality cult is a political phenomenon that arises through propaganda and the skilful use of mass media to portray a venerated and heroic figure.
It started when Kim Il Sung took to power in 1948 and has increased since his death in 1994, being inherited by his son Kim Jong Il and recently his grandson Kim Jong-un. Statues of Kim Il Sung can be seen throughout the country. A three-year mourning period was declared after his death and violations of mourning rules and allegations of ‘insincere grief’ were punished. North Korea’s national constitution was changed to signify Sung as the ‘Eternal President’.
The Korean government and Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) spun ridiculous notions that Kim Il Sung created the world and Kim Jong Il could control the weather with his mood, in addition to giving them military accolades that were never personally earned.
Kim Jong-un came into office in December 2011 and wasted no time in establishing his cult with nation-wide posters, statues and broadcasts. The ‘Ten Principles for the Establishment of a Monolithic Ideological System‘ was amended by The Workers’ Party of Korea to command ‘absolute obedience’ to Kim Jung-un, which is rather unnerving since this serves as the primary legal authority and basis of North Korean law.
Are the people of North Korea just ignorant and oblivious to the manipulation of their nation, or do they live in fear of opposing their government and fighting for their rights? Well, with a government that feeds off its people’s fear and favours forced labour, public executions and ‘re-education’ camps, what would you do?
Human Rights
Supreme Leader Kim Jung-un of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. Notice anything weird in that sentence? Supreme Leader, democratic and supposedly a socialist country all in one? ‘Dictatorial Single Person’s Non-Republic of Korea’ would be more accurate.
North Korea has a government that cites human rights protection as part of its constitution and has sanctioned four international human rights treaties, yet seemingly violates every human right it should uphold to the point of committing Crimes against Humanity. Religious freedom, organised governmental opposition and a free press are just a few rights it doesn’t allow.
‘Juche’ (Self Reliance) is a political theory formulated by deceased leader Kim Sung Il that relies on the belief that the Korean people are the masters of their country’s development. But, given the lack of human rights practices there, do the people even have a say in North Korea’s development? ‘Juche’ comes across as more of a religion than an ideology – regardless of the country’s professed state atheism - as any other belief is seen as opposition to the Supreme Leader and is cause for ‘re-education’.
Why so hungry?
What is appalling is that North Korea spends a third of its income on nuclear weapons and strengthening its army, while 40% of children under the age of five are left malnourished. While 62% of the population relies on food rations, those who have no need for these rations are wealthy and elite. A decent meal in a restaurant costs a minimum of R150. Bear in mind that, since over half of the population relies on rations, a ‘decent meal’ in a restaurant is a far-fetched dream for most. According to the U.N. and the World Food Programme (WFP), North Korea will suffer an even worse famine than the one they had in the 1990s, which killed at least a million people. It is believed that Kim Jong-Il used starvation to control the masses. Reminds one of Stalin, doesn’t it?
Punishments
Koreans convicted of political offenses cause their families to become ‘guilty by association’ and are then sentenced to life imprisonment in the camps. Here they are forced into slave labour, which is often life threatening and they constantly live on the edge of starvation. Consequence of attempted escape, stealing or slow-paced labour is torture.
Re-education camp inmates are often imprisoned for common crimes such as stealing or participating in illegal trade. While similar to the political camps, they have one major difference: the special cells you are confined in for several days - which lack adequate space to stand up or lie full-length on the ground.
Although North Korea denies all allegations of human rights abuse despite a vast collection of evidence in the form of satellite photographs, statements from prisoners and a high mortality rate. It also fails to recognise the 400-page document the United Nations released in late February 2014 that describes their indecent practices and compares North Korea to Nazi Germany.
Rather than blame North Koreans for their collective insanity, shouldn’t we be asking what the rest of the world is doing to stop it? Does anyone even care? Yes, several governments publicly express their distaste (in the country’s regime), but it’s been a long way coming since 1948.
With North Korea being as volatile as it is, it may be a matter of time before the country implodes under internal and external pressure, even the pressure it is attempting to exert on other nations… particularly South Korea. With the North showing no signs of discontinuing their aggressive behaviour, it is likely that such an event will spark the fires of war, leading all feasible scenarios concerning North Korea to end in violence. A last resort for South Korea, but one they may have to take. With the North showing no signs of discontinuing its aggressive behaviour, we may soon see a remake of M.A.S.H.
And who would want that?
"It's North Korea... the nation-state equivalent of the short bus'' - Sterling Archer
Range
Approx. 160km
unspecified
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