'Back in the USSR'
Written by: Nathan Roets
“We just want to return to normality,” says Yulia Tarasenko, a citizen of Slovyansk, Ukraine.
On 3 December 1989, the Cold War was officially declared ‘over’ when Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev met with US President George Bush Sr. to negotiate peace.
Many believe this conclusion to be rooted in the 1987 uprisings within the Soviet Union, initiated in Estonia. The dissension quickly spread, resulting in violent territorial disputes – which in many regions continue today. Nationalist movements rose in Georgia, Moldova, Byelorussia, the Central Asian republics... and the Ukraine.
By January 1992, the Soviet Union had split into fifteen separate states, from which the Commonwealth of Independent Republics (CIR) was formed. CIR states remained politically independent but economically co-dependent (and maintained military ties in many cases).
One can easily imagine Yulia Tarasenko’s father continuing their hypothetical conversation:
“The cold smells like gunpowder and dying men,” he says. “It smells like war.”
For more on the Cold War, visit the BBC site.
Since ex-Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovitch announced the discontinuation of a trade agreement with the European Union (EU) on 21 November 2013, the country has been subject to violent turmoil. Yanukovitch’s reasoning is cited as a desire for closer ties with Moscow. By the 30th, pro-EU, anti-government protesters had begun harvesting public support and the first government buildings were appropriated in Kiev.
On 16 January 2014, the Ukrainian government passed anti-protest laws, which were swiftly denounced as oppressive. Demonstrations escalated, with three protesters dying violently on 22 January. Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov resigned on the 28th and the anti-protest laws were repealed.
Government snipers were caught on security cameras while firing upon protesters on 20 January. This was marked as Kiev’s most violent 48-hour period in almost 70 years, with at least 88 casualties reported.
It is not inconceivable that the Tarasenko family would have been following the news closely when one hundred Russian troops marched on the regional capital of Crimea and Ukrainian PM Arseny Yatsenyuk accused Moscow of declaring war. One can well imagine Grandfather Tarasenko reminisce his Cold War experiences:
The next day, US President Barack Obama went on record stating America would ‘completely reject’ the Crimean referendum on the region’s status, set to be released on 25 May. On the 15th, UNSC supported a draft resolution condemning a separate referendum as illegal, with only Russia vetoing the decision and China abstaining from the vote. The next day however, said referendum went ahead as planned. Official results claimed at least 95 per cent of voters were in favour of a union with Russia.
On 18 March, Putin signed a treaty formally annexing the Crimea Peninsula. As Grandfather Tarasenko could no doubt have told us, this marked the first time since World War II that the Kremlin expanded the country’s borders.
Picture a conversation over the breakfast table in the Tarasenko home:
“It smells cold,” comments one of Yulia’s two young children.
“There is no smell to cold,” Yulia (30) chides.
“Oh yes, there is,” her father, a Cold War veteran, interjects. “It smells like death.”
As the Central Government progressively weakened, it became clear the population wanted democracy - and were prepared to fight for it. And so Gorbachev forfeited his power, formally resigning on 25 December 1991.
On 22 February, Yanukovitch was ousted by parliament and 25 May was earmarked for presidential elections. Oleksandr Turchinov was elected acting president for the interim and by the 24th, a warrant was issued for Yanukovitch’s arrest. He has subsequently been granted asylum in Russia.
Over the following weeks, Crimean Tartars (a Turkic ethnic group native to Crimea) in support of the new Kiev administration clashed with pro-Russian protesters, while these pro-Kremlin activists assumed control of government buildings in the region.
The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) called an emergency closed-door meeting to discuss the arising situation in Crimea on 28 February.
“History always repeats itself.”
On 6 March, Crimea’s parliament made a unanimous vote to secede to Russia – and hours later, the city council of Sevas, Crimea, announced plans to make the change immediately. By the 11th, the regional parliament had adopted a declaration of independence, while the EU was proposing trade liberalisation measures to support the Ukrainian economy.
In response, the US and Europe placed asset freezes and VISA bans on individuals involved in the Crimean breakaway. This list of sanctions was extended on several occasions, including 21 March, 14 and 28 April and finally on 12 May. Further sanctions were threatened by Obama on 25 April and 2 May and again by France and Germany on 10 May. Putin publically condemned such threats on 18 April and on the 28th warned of a ‘painful’ response. The following day, Moscow advised that sanctions put Western interest in Russia’s ‘lucrative energy sector’ at risk.
Three days later, a bill to the same effect was also signed. On the 27th, the UN General Assembly declared the annexation illegal.
Several Ukrainian politicians and security sources have suggested that separatist violence is a result of detailed planning by the Kremlin. The key to this alleged plan was to aggravate existing factions in a country that ‘has struggled to form an identity since it emerged from the Soviet Union’. Accordingly, Russia allegedly exploited its connections in Ukrainian business, youth groups, the church, politicians and criminal networks.
The basis of these accusations is a paper originating from June 2013, described as a ‘Kremlin consultation document’ by Dzerkalo Tyzhnia, a Ukrainian newspaper that published the work in August. The paper (titled ‘On the complex of measures to involve Ukraine in the Eurasian integration process’) claims Russia feared losing influence in Ukraine and desired to create an economic union.
Yanukovitch’s rule was widely considered corrupt and Moscow allegedly believed his unpopularity would negatively affect Putin’s supposed plans for a Russian-led ‘Eurasian’ economic union. This, it is alleged, forms part of a plot to reunite the former Soviet Union. According to the paper, many Ukrainians thought of Yanukovitch as a Kremlin puppet, which would allow for Russian concerns of losing ‘all influence in a new Ukraine if Yanukovitch and his Party of the Regions were toppled’.
The Kremlin have thus far declined to comment, but Russian officials have labelled it as a provocation by pro-Western politicians in Ukraine. Devoid of signature or stamp, the document’s authenticity remains dubious.
On 25 March, Ukraine’s presidential race officially began. Former PM Yulia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko – a billionaire confectionery tycoon – registered as hopeful candidates, while former heavyweight champion Vitali Klitschko pulled out. April ushered in the announcement that NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation – see separate article by Nkululeko Zokufa) has suspended all ‘practical civilian and military co-operation’ with Russia. Yanukovitch also admitted that inviting Russian troops into Crimea was a mistake and promised to try sway Putin’s mind. Poroshenko has claimed an ‘outright victory’ with ‘more than 55% of the vote’ according to BBC News. However, eastern Ukraine (under control of the rebels) did not participate in the electoral process.
On the 6th of April, pro-Russian rebels assumed control of government buildings in Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkov, resulting in the launch of an ‘anti-terror operation’. The Tarasenko family watched rebels invade the police station and security services buildings of their hometown, Slovyansk, on 12 April.
Ukrainian Special Forces failed to dislodge pro-Russian gunmen in Slovyansk, each side suffering a single casualty, while the separatists simultaneously seized city council buildings elsewhere in the region. The Tarasenkos could well have watched as Ukrainian troops retreated from Slovyansk.
“They’ll be back,” Grandfather Tarasenko must surely have sighed.
If so, his world-weary prophecy certainly came true. On 24 April, the Ukrainian military launched an assault on the town, killing ‘up to five rebels’. The following day, a second offensive was launched, besieging Slovyansk.
Come 28 April, NATO announced that despite claims from Moscow, there was no sign of any Russian troops having pulled out of the Ukraine or Crimea. Putin assured the UN Russia would not invade Ukraine.
Regardless, Kiev placed its armed forces on combat alert on 30 April against a possible invasion. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a $17 billion package to aid the beleaguered Ukrainian economy.
2 May 2014 marked the bloodiest day since the new Ukrainian government came into power. A fresh military assault was launched on Slovyansk, resulting in at least 10 casualties, while another forty-two died in the southern city of Odessa.
The following day, a Kremlin envoy intervened in Slovyansk and the rebels freed OSCE observers. As the military fought to regain control, further gunfights broke out in surrounding areas. A fresh assault was launched on 5 May, following Kiev’s vow to expand what it has labelled as anti-terrorism operations.
These events lead to Russia warning that Europe’s peace is at risk, prompting UN Chief Kan Ki-moon to offer his services as a mediator as the West launched new diplomatic pushes. The following day, Germany announced Ukraine was on the verge of war, but Russia rejected the move for a new peace meeting.
On 7 May however, Putin made a surprise announcement, calling for the rebel independence referendums to be postponed. In Slovyansk, BBC News reporters found that although tension had decreased, citizens struggled to accept the seemingly conciliatory statement.
“We wanted the referendum because we believed that once that happened, the Ukrainian forces would withdraw and peace and stability would return,” Yulia Tarasenko told journalists, explaining that she was annoyed by Putin’s call for a delay.
“It’s bad, what Putin said,” agrees Oleg, a rebel fighter in Kramatorsk, a half-hour’s drive from Slovyansk. “The referendum can’t be stopped. It has gone too far. Russian peacekeepers should still be sent: we are protecting our land.”
Regardless of Putin’s call, the rebels vowed to continue with the referendums. Meanwhile, Russia conducted further military exercises, test-firing several missiles and announcing that nuclear capabilities were on ‘constant combat alert’.
On 11 May, twin referendums were held in Luhansk and Donetsk, where activists later declared a resounding victory in favour of self-government and secession from Ukraine. Having taken to calling their region the People’s Republic of Donetsk (PRD), the separatists appointed Alexandr Borodai as Prime Minister on Saturday, 27 May. He recently confirmed that the PRD will apply to join Russia.
Ukraine initiated a host of EU ‘national unity’ talks on 14 May. However, the separatists were not invited and have not attended.
When the talks resumed on Wednesday, 21 May, Putin made promises not to interfere with an association and trade pact planned between the EU and Georgia for 27 June 2014. However, he later portioned Ukraine and set up barbwire barricades on borders shared between Russia and Georgia, which seceded from the former in 2003. Georgia plans not only to join the EU, but NATO as well.
UN Assistant Secretary General for Human Rights Ivan Simonovic recently told BBC News the situation in Ukraine had worrying echoes of his homeland (Croatia) during the ’90s.
“What I’m really afraid [of] is that [the] country is approaching a point of no return,” he says.“I firmly believe that there is a window of opportunity that should be used,” he elaborated, adding that this window was fast closing.
“I firmly believe that there is a window of opportunity that should be used,” he elaborated, adding that this window was fast closing.
Meanwhile, citizens of Slovyansk are trying to live as normally as possible in the heart of the rebellion.
“We passed a grandfather and grandson strolling hand-in-hand within yards of the main security service building,” wrote Fergal Keane of BBC News. “Shoppers were moving about in the bright sunshine. On our first trip here, we were the targets of warning shots fired by nervous rebels outside this very building.”
Is this lull in conflict the first sign of Yulia Tarasenko’s normality returning?
More likely, Russian PM Dmitry Medvedev was correct in saying, “We are slowly but surely moving toward a second Cold War.”
For a comprehensive timeline of the Ukraine Crisis from 21 November 2013 to 14 May 2014, visit Aljazeera site.
Newly elected President Petro Poroshenko says his first priority is to end the war in eastern Ukraine, but adds that he will never recognise the Crimean referendums of 11 May – nor any subsequent ones.